Show cover of Wellbeing by Aleksander Poniewierski Consulting

Wellbeing by Aleksander Poniewierski Consulting

Every few days, I publish a post on my blog (www.APConsulting.tech) about leadership, technology, and business. Each post is a story inspired by a photo I took during my travels. I invite you to listen to short reflections on these posts. I use Google NotebookLM to create them.

Tracks

The esoteric market (divination, horoscopes, and prophecies) worldwide is worth hundreds of billions of dollars. It is equally popular in Poland. Every day, hundreds of thousands of Poles turn to divination and prophecies. Websites analyzing dreams (dream dictionaries) are visited by tens of thousands of people daily. One could say that this is a harmless form of entertainment, were it not for the fact that hundreds of people make significant decisions about their future based on divination or prophecies.A very popular form of entertainment in the early 20th century at amusement parks and traveling circuses was the ZOLTAR machine. A wizard in a turban, who for a few cents, accompanied by Persian rhythms, would print a ticket with a life prophecy. As we know, such prophecies can always be tailored to reality, so everyone can find something for themselves. It's similar to the fortune cookies at a Chinese restaurant or the horoscopes from gazeta.pl. Many studies have been conducted to explain why people not only believe in such prophecies but also remember them for a long time. The mechanical Zoltar was attributed with reasoning abilities and empathy towards the customer, while operating 24/7/365.A few months ago, the Apple team published a paper titled "GSM-Symbolic: Understanding the Limitations of Mathematical Reasoning in Large Language Models," which clearly states that LLM models do not have reasoning abilities, but only statistical mechanisms for calculating probabilities. It seems that everyone should be aware of this, but that is not the case. LLM models are like the Zoltar of the 21st century. A few days ago, with the appearance of the SORA model, the internet was flooded with videos showing generated characters that, despite being very realistic, broke all physical laws. Skiers going uphill, gymnasts with three pairs of legs performing mid-air somersaults as if gravity had no effect on them. Laughter, mockery, and widespread criticism. Crowds of former LLM model supporters, as a prelude to the destruction of humanity and the omnipresence of artificial superintelligence, received a cold shower. In the Gospel of John (20:24–29), Doubting Thomas had to see in order to believe. In our AI world, "Blessed are those who have not seen and yet have believed" has now become a foundation for mockery, as many have been persuaded that their professional and life future depends on a quick and unreflective plunge into the world of Zoltar.Artificial intelligence (machine learning models) has powerful applications in industry, transport, and science. This is indisputable. Wherever real-time (or near real-time) decision-making gives a competitive edge, or initiating the correct—optimal—action is valuable in itself, AI is thriving. These areas are developing at an incredible pace. The effects of AI are not visible, but their consequences are. They bring benefits. Any Zoltar-like applications, not only extremely costly (OpenAI fears it won't be able to offer users access to the latest models because they lack the computational power), but also with results that, outside of entertainment and the ability to stimulate endorphins, do not bring business benefits. In other words, they are useless. It's fun to generate an image (especially if I don't have talent and can suddenly make something I've always dreamed of) or write a marketing strategy. But when you calculate the costs versus the benefits, there’s no way it can be justified.And here's a reflection: Zoltar was not supposed to predict the future. It was supposed to be a tool for making money off emotionally unstable people or those who treated such divinations as a form of entertainment. The machine paid for itself in one month, which is why it was a hit in its time. LLMs don't pay for themselves so quickly, so they are gradually becoming a burden on their environment. Undoubtedly, they raised awareness of advanced analytical technologies and sparked the imagination of millions of people. They also provided easy money for hundreds of thousands. Zoltars faded into obscurity with the advent of slot machines. After all, in the end, people count their expenses and expect to win.A picture from Tikal in Guatemala. Monumental structures that cost the lives of thousands of inhabitants. The immense costs of construction and divine power over the masses. These buildings also served scientific and research purposes (astrology), but that was a marginal application. This image is dedicated to all those who understand what it means to carry the pyramids. To those to whom they bring eternal glory and strength, and to those who must pay for it.

12/14/24 • 14:06

Guess what… 10 times the priceIn the 1950s and 1960s, consumerism reached its peak worldwide. The wealthier societies in Europe after World War II, as well as those in the USA, where new pop culture was emerging that would set global trends in fashion and daily life, significantly changed the form of communication. With the rise of television and daily newspapers, product marketing took on a new level. Many excellent experts emerged with the goal of reaching as large a group of customers as possible and convincing them that they should buy. Not just that they should buy, but that it would be shameful not to have it.One of the most famous advertising magicians of the time was David Ogilvy. A controversial figure, often criticized. However, no one can deny that he changed our world forever. He was the one who said, "The consumer isn't a moron, she's your wife." Numerous strategies developed by him and his team still form the basic approach to campaigns today. It is a canon. In this forest of innovations developed in New York, London, or Tokyo, there is one principle that is extremely useful and effective for business leaders. This principle is leaving the customer (or employee) with a certain, but highly controlled, space for interpretation. Ogilvy said that advertising must make the customer think.According to this principle, a brand should not provide the solution to the customer on a silver platter. Instead, it should prepare the message very carefully so that its interpretation by the customers is clear, and often obvious. In advertising, this technique is realized through a strong slogan and an image or picture associated with the product. "Just Do It" and the Nike logo are understandable worldwide. Of course, you could write, "Buy Nike shoes because they're the best for running, basketball, etc.," but that would insult the intelligence of the audience. "Red Bull Gives You Wings," "I'm Lovin' It" for McDonald's, or many others, are direct but not entirely so.Many companies have mastered this method, motivating their customers effectively. We are used to it. But before our eyes, an evolution of the message is happening, particularly in the realm of modern technology. What does the new message look like? The world, with our consent, is splitting into two main groups. The first group is the more prestigious, wealthy, and demanding one, served by specialists and dedicated experts (a group with time and money), while the second group is focused on cost, and the service can be performed by a machine. An example is today’s banking, helpline services, or even medical advice. You handle your matter because it’s typical. Marketing has worked this out with a simple message: "Don't waste time in line, do it yourself for free."We can observe this trend with knowledge-based products. Companies that launched their products in the typical Silicon Valley way (build mass, then sculpt it) give their services for free or in a freemium business model. They face a huge challenge in starting to make a profit. It’s even said that once you’ve given something for free, you’ll never make users pay. And this is where the genius of Ogilvy and Rosser Reeves, known for the "Unique Selling Proposition" (USP) concept, comes in. The idea is that after a period of use and getting familiar with the product, its full price must be ridiculously high. Not just expensive. Extremely expensive. Less than 24 hours ago, OpenAI applied this method exactly. The paid subscription won’t cost $20. It will cost $200. And you know what? People will pay because they will realize they are joining the first group, and the second group, the ones who don’t pay, won’t have access to the full experience. That’s how it’s done.

12/7/24 • 10:11

50 kilometers outside Warsaw, no one knows what the future of AI will look like. It's astonishing. There is a complete lack of respect and understanding of what is important. Of course, it's a bit ironic. Politicians, when asked about the price of bread or butter, don't know the answer. People in smaller towns or villages have no idea what ChatGPT is. Only a very small, almost microscopic part of society is aware of the decline in token prices or the time needed to train a model. The topic of new technologies is very important. Just as important as the economy, demographic issues, or national security. But for the average global citizen, these topics are secondary or even tertiary. A few years ago, I visited the R&D department of one of the largest universities in the United States. A group of young innovators there invented a shoe sole made using 3D technology. After a few years, these soles became the standard for most Adidas sneakers. Some people like them, others don’t care for them. Talking to these guys, I felt they were doing something extraordinary. They were changing the world and our everyday lives. Today, I don’t think about it at all. Only a vague memory of that meeting comes to mind whenever I put them on. What we discuss in very isolated expert, business, or political groups has little to do with the everyday problems of citizens around the world. It's important to realize this. A 10% drop in the price of gold or palladium on the Kuala Lumpur stock exchange is just as relevant to a villager near Poznań as the price of potatoes in Somalia or cattle in Ethiopia. There are about 300 million motorcycles in the world. Every Asian resort is teeming with them, not to mention India, where they are a primary mode of transport. But few people know that there are about 100 million AK-47 rifles (Kalashnikovs) worldwide, with over 50% in the hands of citizens, not the military. The estimated number of rounds of ammunition for these weapons is 21 billion, meaning there are nearly three rounds for every person on earth. 95% of companies worldwide are or will be users of artificial intelligence. Only 5% of companies create it to some extent. We buy, use, and don’t worry about the valuation of the companies producing it. Society, just like individual countries, has long been divided into givers and receivers in many different dimensions. Mass-market technology has been with us for 250 years. Consumer goods entered the market 100 years ago. In the average household in the Western world, fewer than 5% of items are older than 50 years, and that’s only because they have collector’s or sentimental value. In less developed economies, over 30% of items are older than 50 years. In the poorest regions of the world, this figure reaches nearly 50%. The consumerist society is bombarded with new products, trends, and is constantly encouraged to make more purchases. The problem of fast fashion, popularized with business models like Zalando, is being discussed more loudly. Ten years ago, Black Friday encouraged people to embark on long trips to shopping malls. Now we see an exponential rise in deliveries to our doorsteps. The question is whether modern technology has taken our jobs or if we simply no longer have shop assistants but delivery drivers. Habits, needs, and motivations are changing. But remember, we are only talking about 30% of the world’s population.

12/2/24 • 07:18

Obi-Wan vs Bill BanAustralia is considering a ban on social media use for children under the age of 16. Interestingly, the ban would apply even if parents consented to their children using such platforms. Biometric testing for this system is expected to begin later this year. On the one hand, it’s good that the issue is being acknowledged and systemic attempts are being made to address it. On the other hand, it’s easy to imagine workarounds, from VPNs to registering devices in other countries. What puzzles me, though, is why, in a world increasingly captivated by AI, we’re not exploring effective methods of using this tool to cleanse social networks of harmful content. Instead, we choose the seemingly simplest but least effective route. Why aren’t platform operators obligated to verify content and counteract harmful phenomena? Public television and radio stations are required to control their content. The responsibility for socially responsible business practices falls squarely on them. So why do we accept that social platforms are not accountable for the content they host? If they can recommend content with surgical precision through behavioral engines, why can’t they counteract harmful material? Ah, yes, there’s freedom of speech and access to adult content. The business must go on, of course. It reminds me of Tolkien’s Gandalf or his mentor-like counterpart, Obi-Wan Kenobi. Someone would have to determine what is good and what is bad. Social reactions, like reporting harmful content, are ineffective because they require statistical confirmation. Even when such confirmation exists, platforms often ignore reports. I’ve conducted experiments, and current mechanisms are ineffective. What about AI? Could it serve something positive instead of churning out frivolous images or monotonous melodies? Absolutely. The problem is, no one seems interested. Youth under 16 years old make up over 30% of social media users. The proportion of educational and worldview-shaping content is less than 10% of the platforms' offerings. The rest consists of drama, controversies, donation-seeking (e.g., TikTokers insulting viewers with comments like, “Are you too poor to send gifts? Get lost.”), and various scams. The problem is, such content drives clicks and views. What if live streams were automatically blocked (like they currently are when someone lights up a cigarette on camera), and the creator was permanently banned? Would humanity suffer a loss? Blocking a user’s account for a single indecent word or harmful behavior could change platforms forever—perhaps even drive them to extinction. Looking at it this way, we face a question: should we prohibit children from watching drunken brawls, or should we ban online broadcasts of such events altogether? Wouldn’t it be better to sell alcohol or other substances in strictly designated and controlled locations (physical and digital) rather than create complicated access restriction systems? Why should all citizens fund control systems when the costs could be passed on to companies running such businesses? It reminds me of establishments like strip clubs or nightclubs. Nobody demands biometric proof or other complex control systems there. Clear regulations apply to business owners, with severe penalties for violations.  

11/24/24 • 14:22

The Power of SuggestionFriday, June 14, 2024by Aleksander Poniewierski, APConsulting We all know that expensive perfumes smell better than cheap ones. A heavy wine bottle must contain a superior drink. A well-dressed gentleman scores more points with future in-laws than one in casual attire. Even a pricey car creates the perception that its driver (often not the owner) is a wealthy person. We fall for appearances. Sociologists conduct various studies to understand and explain why we are so susceptible to suggestion. The placebo effect or Asch's conformity experiments demonstrate that, as a rule, we are very easily influenced. This tendency is often ruthlessly exploited by various fraudsters to our detriment. In nature, the suggestive colors of insects or birds are designed to mislead potential predators. In a store, they aim to persuade wealthy customers to make purchases. Things are not as they appear or as they are described. In today’s world, this applies especially—if not primarily—to technology. From everyday tools to sophisticated devices for aesthetic medicine, the art of manipulation has reached new levels. In the world of data, this manipulation is used even more relentlessly. A few days ago, Apple unveiled its new iOS 18 operating system. Hundreds of articles hailed the innovations and features that will “change our world forever.” In reality, it’s just a handful of minor improvements and gimmicks (and the intelligent assistant isn’t even available yet—for those eager to download the developer beta, don’t bother). Meanwhile, heated debates rage on about an allegedly unforgivable clause in Adobe’s new terms of service. This clause asks users to accept that the results of their work—e.g., photos or graphics—can be used to train AI algorithms. Few noticed that such a provision (albeit in a different form) has been part of the Creative Cloud license agreement for quite some time. Euphoria and outrage. Proclamations of a new era or the end of the world. Conformity driven by the faces of famous celebrities or multimillionaires makes us believe in fairy tales. Naivety or laziness? Or perhaps a tendency to rely on "authorities" without even skimming the details? Yesterday, I read an excellent analysis of the behavior and content published by a national security influencer. It was a short text but brilliantly described how easily we allow ourselves to be manipulated—or even have stereotypes or ways of thinking implanted in our minds—just because this influencer looks good, has a calm, intelligent-sounding voice, and an appealing demeanor. What they say doesn’t really matter, as most of us don’t rationally analyze facts; we simply accept them as truth. It’s like listening to songs in Spanish, Korean, or English when you don’t know the language. You have no idea what the song is about, but it sounds good. The problem arises when you use such a song as background music for a video and publish it. If you're unlucky, that combination might be, at best, laughable. The power of suggestion is a formidable weapon, and when wielded in social media, it shapes the perceptions, preferences, and choices of millions.

11/23/24 • 11:54

Jake Paul defeated Mike Tyson. The real sensation would have been if the result had been the opposite. But is that truly the case? Instead of commenting on the fight itself, I’ll focus on the business model concept of capitalizing on sentiment. It turns out that grand comebacks and “golden shots” are natural business models embedded in the life cycle of an investment project. Leveraging sentiment or reviving an old, well-known brand can serve as a way to extend the S-curve in Porter’s theory.   Products (and undoubtedly, sports stars are also products) that evoke nostalgia and remind us of the most exciting times of our lives—when they were out of reach, too expensive, or inaccessible—sell exceptionally well when we grow up. However, this "second life" of a product is a unique offering that requires skillful marketing. Efforts directed at a singular event, such as the “boxing match of the century” or a concert featuring a band giving a one-time-only performance after 20 years, must be monetized to the fullest: a Netflix documentary, a “new” yet familiar album, or an array of merchandise. The art lies in maximizing profits from that one “shot.”   The situation is different with the comeback of brands. Many iconic brands return after a period of obscurity with a new twist, achieving varying degrees of success. Retro watches, chewing gums, juices, car brands, shoes, or eyewear—all share a common goal: finding a new audience by tapping into the nostalgia of parents or guardians.   Big comebacks aim to preserve the seemingly iconic appearance while integrating significant doses of modern technology. It’s like a “wolf in sheep’s clothing”—of course, in this comparison, both the wolf and the sheep carry positive connotations.   Sometimes, however, companies opt for a “botox injection.” A powerful and profitable brand, threatened by a new competitor, decides to buy them out to extend its own glory. An intriguing example is Unilever. After numerous acquisitions in the shaving market (including Gillette), it faced the rapid rise of the subscription-based startup One Dollar Shave Club. This business model quickly became a hit in the U.S. Unable to compete with the phenomenon, Unilever decided to acquire the company. For a time, the company attempted to reconcile two different business models under one roof, but this proved unworkable. The values a company upholds and communicates to its customers must remain consistent. While it’s possible to own various brands catering to different demographics—wealthier and less affluent audiences, for instance—operating two business models is inefficient. Last year, Unilever sold One Dollar Shave Club to the Nexus fund. The very next day, a negative campaign began, and the iconic Gillette started regaining market share.   Business botox or “powdering the nose” (not to be confused with the concept from Pulp Fiction) can be highly profitable if well-planned. However, as with any interference with “nature”—in this case, the market—it can lead to devastation and a bitter aftertaste.   

11/16/24 • 06:27

MAKE POLAND GREAT AT LAST – on Independence Day, November 11  People have very different views on the world around them. An old Indian parable about a group of blind men and an elephant perfectly captures the classic issue of perspectives and awareness. It goes something like this: several blind men touch an elephant and try to describe it. One touches the trunk and says, "The elephant is a soft tube." Another touches the tail and says, "No, the elephant is a thick rope." Yet another touches the tusks and says, "Absolutely not, the elephant is a smooth stick." Of course, each of the blind men is right, but only in a certain part of the reality.   In consulting, they say the secret of success lies in the ability to see the whole problem—the *BIG PICTURE*. Without getting into details, without interpreting individual features, flaws, or advantages. Only by seeing the whole and removing emotions can we assess the situation and choose an appropriate strategy.   Today, there is much talk about the state's digitalization strategy, an AI strategy for our country, and investment plans. And it’s very good that this is being discussed. It’s very good that people are interested and that there are those who want to make a difference. However, observing this, I see a certain trap, like in the elephant parable—the lack of a clear, single-sentence *"why."*   Donald Trump, in his previous presidential campaign, had a fantastic slogan: *"Make America Great Again."* Wonderfully simple and very meaningful. For me, America was a dream. During my studies, I wanted to flee to America and start my professional life there. Later, I visited the country hundreds of times. I have businesses there. It is a wonderful country, but something went wrong. It lost its charm, declined. And people living there, not seeing the change, long for a return to the status of the 1980s—Ronald Reagan’s America. Great, magnificent, a leader setting trends in all disciplines. *"Again"*—a clear direction for another chance.   *Why* do we need a digitalization strategy or AI development in Poland? Certainly, we can’t copy the concept of "Again." But perhaps we should have our own *"At Last"*? The last 30 years have been an exceptionally important period for Poland. Wonderful. From political transformation, through economic, to cultural. At least two generations of Poles have benefited from this period. Everything has changed for the better, whether in the countryside or in the heart of an urban agglomeration. In my view, however, we still underinvest in science and education. There is also a neglected area of resource and energy independence. I remember nearly 20 years ago when successive governments were urged to modernize energy, water management, and public services. But there are always more urgent issues. Only when it hurts do we address it. We even have our own saying: *"A Pole is wise after the fact."*   We have had substantial support from EU funds for the last few years (3-5). The question is, can we use them wisely? At least as well as we did with infrastructure? But this time, let’s do it for services and knowledge. Let’s invest in the information society, in ecosystems for creating technological solutions (and not only ICT, though that’s the easiest to focus on). Are we afraid of war? Rightly so. Let’s invest in defensive, but also offensive, cyber technologies. Are we afraid of losing competitiveness? Let’s invest in logistics and planning data and algorithms. Are we, finally, afraid of the demographic crisis? Let’s invest in new competencies and sectors of the economy, where relieving people from trivial tasks through AI will allow us to use human resources for creative work.   We have our window. Most importantly, we have incentives (even a few) and funds. Let’s strive to motivate as many blind men as possible to express their opinions about the elephant, but let the enlightened, those who see the big picture, also operate efficiently, for heaven’s sake. This is our patriotic duty, as well as our pride and responsibility for the future of our children.

11/11/24 • 10:44

When I Am a (Romantic) GodMonday, June 24, 2024  by Aleksander Poniewierski, APConsultingIn my hometown of Katowice, in the district of Bogucice, lived the king of early Polish hip-hop - Magik. He wrote in the words of an iconic song:> "(...) Because I am God, realize that  > You hear the words that make your hair stand on end  > Oh dear, oh dear, I am unbeatable (...)"He was talented but born in the wrong place and time. Nowadays, Paktofonika’s music and its bone-chilling lyrics would likely struggle to get airtime on commercial radio stations, but at least he’d have a chance to pay the electricity bills with royalties. As the saying goes, you have to choose: either you're a legend, or a commercial influencer leaving nothing behind. The band was great, and Magik’s story will live on in the history of the Polish music scene. Probably, his death significantly contributed to the myth. Mystery and speculation fuel imagination. Assumptions are made, and a sense of injustice grows. This is precisely what drives popularity—in his case, unfortunately, posthumously.Last week, we had two viral stories. The first was about the departure of one of the masterminds behind OpenAI, Ilya Sutskever, the company’s chief scientist, who decided to start his own AI firm based on deep ethical values—a company called Safe Superintelligence Inc. The announcements are enormous. Safe super AI, ethical creation and use. The internet buzzed because, either with Elon Musk’s circle of investors, he’s trying to prove it can be done differently, or he knows something we are not fully aware of and wants history to judge him not as a misjudged genius but as a rebellious one. On the other side of the internet, we have a girl known as "hawk tuah," who participated in a street interview, gave a humorous answer to a question, and not only went viral but within just 48 hours generated a craze for T-shirts, caps, and song remixes with her answer (which I won’t quote here for obvious reasons). In Tennessee and even other states in America, people are searching for this “star,” while tattoo studios are recording record profits from creating tattoos of her likeness and the slogan that will undoubtedly become the summer hit.We need idols and contemporary crowd-pleasers. It has always been this way and always will be. We need sensation and speculation. We need legends, even if they are stars of a single sentence, like our “spitter.” We need moving stories and, as Gen Z says, drama. We need to envy, even if just for a moment, the luck of being in the right place at the right time. We need heroes who defy the mainstream. Defiant rebels. Konrad Wallenrods fighting the system, or Magiks who tell of their lives in a romantic way. We need someone to say "no" for us—rebels. We also need the circus of “pathology” to say... what kind of people, what kind of values, while sharing their content further, for laughs, for fun, and for a semblance of disapproval.

11/10/24 • 10:07

(In) a Different Light Uncertain times. Or perhaps highly predictable ones. We’ve grown accustomed to a very simplistic view of the world. In politics, the Left fights the Right; Democrats battle Republicans. For the past several decades, economic, political, and social analysts have been confidently predicting what will happen. And things did happen, following a readable pattern. Whenever analysts forecasted a crash in gold or cryptocurrencies, instead of selling, one should have bought. When a hot summer was predicted, it was almost certain it would rain. Something seems broken now. The recent elections in France are thought-provoking. The U.S. presidential candidates, their public speeches, and debates make us wonder how it's possible that, in such a large country, there aren’t more suitable politicians to lead the world’s largest economy during a crisis and offer hope that everything is under control. Or perhaps that’s precisely the point—to shake everyone out of the sense of security and the belief that everything is okay. Tech companies visibly struggle to find a new strong development trend. AI may still inspire hope for a better tomorrow, but when you look at the broader IT market, a slump is visible after the extraordinary growth during the COVID era. Property owners are starting to realize that the seemingly safe and profitable rental business is slowing down, if not becoming outright unprofitable. And finally, the intensifying atmosphere of impending armed conflict in more and more parts of the world exacerbates the sense of uncertainty. Nothing that was once considered certain seems so anymore. Moreover, there are no new safe havens or hopeful prospects emerging for ordinary people, businesses, or even entire nations. Depolarization began some time ago, as wise minds have noted. Now it’s time for a new worldview, one likely different from the one we’ve known. There is a lack of clear leaders to show a new direction. Universal prosperity pushes us to focus on at least secondary matters (take, for example, the issue of bottle caps or phone chargers). Harder issues, though visible, await self-resolution, in line with the classic principle that half of all problems solve themselves, and someone else will take care of the other half. But I have a feeling that this time, it may not work that way. You’re probably wondering why this blog is here and why it has such a gloomy tone. It stems from my observations of the ongoing debate over the past few months, the decisions being made by democracies worldwide, and the matters dominating the headlines. Prepare for the last "standard" summer. Autumn will bring a turning point for everything.

11/4/24 • 06:50

Patterns of Eternity  It is often said that history repeats itself. There is little doubt that due to human nature, technological cycles, economic phases, and daily life tend to follow familiar patterns. Nations are oppressed, they fight for freedom. A revolution, often bloody, reshapes the fate of a polarized society. The oppressed win and, with songs on their lips, proclaim ideas of freedom. This state doesn’t last long, however, as power corrupts—as Lord Acton once said. After some time, something in the system shifts, and those who were once oppressed begin to oppress their former oppressors. And so the cycle repeats.   In business, it's similar. A company emerges out of nowhere, achieves success. This state lasts a few years, or in some cases, decades, until eventually someone comes along and disrupts the established order. Giants fall into history, and new ones rise from their ashes. In small towns, wealth accumulates around families running businesses. Within a few seasons, they become the wealthiest family; everyone talks about them. Then something happens—either they go bankrupt or get into trouble with the law, after which they disappear from the scene. For a time, legends circulate about how wealthy and influential they once were. Locals remember their grand house, and the most prominent family tomb remains in the cemetery.   Those who learn from history strive to preserve the memory of their greatness forever. They invest in a "legacy"—something intended to outlast them. In America, they fund universities or build infrastructure. Leaders have monuments erected in their honor, and biographies are written about businessmen. Scientists lend their names to discoveries, formulas, or inventions. Everyone wants to live forever, hoping that the memory of their achievements will overshadow the negative stories of their lives. Sometimes this works; sometimes it doesn’t.   Technologies, too, have their cycles. The most groundbreaking ones, even when no longer protected by patents, remain part of our daily lives. Georges de Mestral, who invented Velcro in the 1940s, knew that his invention needed to reach "the masses." Today, we can’t imagine a ski jacket or motorcycle gear without Velcro. His invention only became widespread, however, after NASA used it in astronaut suits. We all use the Internet, but only a few know who developed the TCP/IP protocol. The same goes for medicines and consumer electronics.   Historical, economic, and technological cycles share another distinctive element. Each new cycle champions an ideal and negates the previous state. This pairing—new and old—is ever-present, like the sun and the moon, night and day. To communicate with people, the masses, you need models, simple frameworks. Only then can they understand and accept. In a short span, people cannot grasp abstract concepts. Effective marketing, therefore, points out the flaws of the previous solution and finds patterns associated with well-being. "Don’t eat chemically stimulated food; eat organic because it’s healthy." "Don’t use combustion engine cars; use clean energy."   And even though we sense a certain manipulation in such messages, we accept it. We even actively seek out these patterns. Because each of us likes to complain and believes in a better tomorrow.

11/3/24 • 05:41

The Perspective of "Otherness"In my Project 2/3, I decided to take a close look at issues I’ve observed over the years in my professional career—this time with conscious awareness and a bit of distance. One such topic is being surrounded by people who have perspectives different from our own. Personally, I believe that when we talk about "diversity," this is what holds the greatest value. It’s not about someone’s race, gender, or whether they believe in God. It’s about the fact that being raised in a particular culture or possessing certain predispositions provides an extraordinary “booster,” as Americans say, in teams where such talents come together.Experience can be very deceptive. As we develop habits, we start losing sensitivity to critically analyze reality. Corporations use the term “detached from reality.” You don’t remember what it was like when you were just starting out; when you celebrated small successes, or when you could work for hours to solve a problem. Now, with 30+ years of experience, you believe that the only path to success is the tried-and-tested (by you) one. We often say that routine can lead us astray. In our private lives, we blindly choose wine at a restaurant based on the region, a car rental based on the brand, and a holiday spot based on star ratings and reviews on Booking.com.In the professional world, it’s exactly the same. Established paths, tried-and-true tricks—even working with people with whom we’ve already achieved success. Why take risks?A long time ago, my mentor gave me life advice. I didn’t understand it at first, but as I started to apply it, I realized it was a million-dollar piece of advice. He told me to change my life every so often (once every 5 years), setting entirely new goals that would require great sacrifices and relearning from scratch. He said that most people are satisfied with what they have and what they’ve achieved. They fear taking on new challenges because they don’t know if they will lead to the same success. And after all, no one likes to fail. This approach requires courage and, from experience, a search for new people from whom you can learn.This doesn’t mean quitting your job or family to go to the ends of the earth and become a monk in a Buddhist temple (though that is also an option). It’s about stepping outside your comfort zone. Listening to others who are better than you, more experienced—in a word, different. To experience the joy of becoming good at a different discipline.This is how diversity works. If you’re completely “fixated” on your own beliefs, you lack understanding for other perspectives. We can’t tolerate other beliefs and viewpoints. In the end, we look in astonishment at differing opinions, and sometimes the wall we build becomes high enough to ignore any harm.Some people can be reached through arguments—they’ll understand and agree. Others need to be persuaded to bend their views. Some are content being victims, as it gives their existence meaning. There are those whose goal is to shout about injustice. When the world changes, they look for another target to once again cry out about injustice. And there are those who strive to educate, explaining that different perspectives or simply other forms of existence are naturally correct. In my opinion, these people are valuable. Lastly, there are those who, through their own actions, demonstrate the benefits of otherness (though calling it that is quite inappropriate).

10/29/24 • 09:56

It's Not Worth Being Naive; You’re Important When Someone Needs You.  Buena Vista Social Club. It was a music project and a huge success. In 1996, the song "Chan Chan" ruled the radio stations. Beautiful and atmospheric, it brings back memories of the island’s best times for those who have been to Havana. The music video showcases life in Old Havana, with people and stereotypes: old cars, cigars, rum, and, of course, elderly gentlemen in white hats playing guitars, bass, and trumpets. The production won a Grammy, and a documentary was filmed to the music from the album. In the years following the project’s success, tickets for "evenings" with BVSC music could be bought in Havana and Miami. The package includes dinner, wine, and a cigar, with dancing, fun, and an incredible atmosphere. The show (concert) ends, and tourists head back to their hotels, richer in cultural experience and with the naive belief that they have encountered the last bastion of true culture.Compared to other Caribbean islands, Cuba is still shrouded in a melancholic mist of romance and regret for lost time, but also respect for how the nation has managed to preserve its roots. Despite poor conditions on the island, a lack of infrastructure, and unattractive dining and sanitation conditions, the place is full of tourists. When I first visited Cuba in the 2000s, I was robbed but felt happy. In the next decade, I returned to the island, and it had changed beyond recognition — for the worse. My last visit before COVID left me feeling completely disappointed. Although more and more hotels are being built there, even luxurious ones like Kempinski, the charm has vanished. At least for me.Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel explains that the deteriorating situation in Cuba is due to debt, embargo, and general backwardness. Lack of fuel and energy shortages prevent attracting investors. Economic uncertainty and a complicated import-export system mean this island, which isn’t self-sufficient, has to import products like tobacco from Vietnam. Even though there’s a fishing industry, it’s impossible to buy fresh fish. The lack of foreign currency means the country can’t pay off its debts. The cycle closes in on itself. The main export commodity is doctors and nurses. Officially, this is called the export of professional services, which is three times larger than other goods like cigars, rum, or even nickel, not to mention tourism revenue. Even cooperation with China can’t improve the situation.  And this point is particularly interesting. Theoretically, in this situation, Russia or China could, at minimal cost, effectively colonize Cuba. But that’s not happening. Moreover, contracts with China are of an interventionist nature, if not outright humanitarian aid. And one could ask what this story teaches us from a modern business perspective. I know this may come as a shock. Why am I comparing an economy to startups? But I’ll continue with this thread. First, the survival of a business depends on its market and its capacity. Secondly, having the right partners and implementing a collaboration strategy is crucial, but the most important is not to rely on help when the other party has no vested interest. In discussions about building startups, we often talk about Product-Market Fit or production costs. It’s precisely the definition of mutual or three-sided interest that is the most critical success factor for continuity, if not survival.

10/28/24 • 05:16

Will generative AI be for businesses what ketchup is for fast-food?  At the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th, the world was going through the second industrial revolution. Every day, piles of new applications appeared on the desks of patent offices. Everyone wanted to invent something. We know examples of completely misguided ideas supposedly meant to make our lives easier or to make our work more productive and easier. From this time comes the most famous statement that "everything that can be invented has already been invented". This statement is attributed to Charles H. Duell, an American lawyer and government official who served as Commissioner of the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) from 1898 to 1901. Regardless of whether he said this or not, there is some irony in it. In most cases, inventions or rationalization designs are invented by people to improve existing solutions. Even the concept of innovation comes down to transferring a solution that works in one area (sector) to another, making it more effective. In January 2024 , I conducted a survey on LinkedIn asking where the biggest benefit of generative AI is seen. Of course, the survey is not representative, but I think it well reflects the current market trend. 67% of responses indicate that generative AI will be used to increase work efficiency (it should make the work I do easier), 19% and 13% respectively for making my life easier and developing my skills. These responses do not surprise me and confirm the research conducted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the International Labour Organization (ILO). Looking at history, particularly the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, over 70% of patents were issued for work-easing solutions. Wait a moment. Isn't the greatest fear of introducing AI or other modern technologies the loss of jobs? Of course, it is. It was, is, and will be because progress forces us to adapt and learn entirely new things useful in new conditions. This can be called development, competence change, or simply adaptation.A few days ago, I had a discussion with one of my friends about why AI is a hot topic now. We pointed to solutions that have been working for at least 10 years, making our lives easier or our work more pleasant. And it's all based on AI. So why is there so much talk about generative AI now? Do companies need to find another topic for development (with the failure of METAVERSE, although I think in a few months it will be loud again when you can buy a new Apple VisionPro), or perhaps because technology company employees are being laid off en masse (though we are talking about single percentages and according to star theory those more administrative than substantive).In my opinion, about which I have already written in several previous articles, three conditions have been met. Cheap, quick results, and most importantly, easy to use. This is what generative AI is today. There is one more interesting (though not surprising) element. Dozens of organizations and startups are springing up, creating their own often open-source solutions. Most of them are trying to address some specific productivity enhancement problem or a scalable use case. One can certainly compare the patent fever with what is happening today. However, there is one significant difference that we do not notice at first glance. Boredom. After the crazy signing up of users for OpenAI subscriptions, the number of users in the last month has fallen by over 10%. And it will fall.Those who saw the potential for REPEATABLE improvement, easing their work, will use it. Those who wanted to try but didn't change their habits will stop using or change the platform to see something new. Just like 20th-century inventions, some are with us today, while others have been forgotten. Those who stayed and are part of everyday life either changed our habits or cemented them. The same thing happened with the Google search engine or social networks. They're like bottle caps or straws for a frappuccino. We don't think, we just use – automatically. Generative AI and most of the use cases currently being tested will tend to hide (white label), weave between currently used solutions, and converge with other technologies. They will be like syrup for a drink or ketchup for fast food. Then we will stop asking ourselves whether AI will destroy us, replace us at work, and whether it will have a negative impact on our lives. Today we don't ask these questions when we think about the Internet. And what's more, we don't blame the Internet (as a technology) for pathologies or negative effects. We blame users for using it badly. And I wish the same for generative AI, that we could blame people for misuse, not the technology itself.  

10/23/24 • 05:57

Innocent GameWhat if I told you that your children are likely engaging in gambling every day? Not in casinos or gaming arcades, but at home, in front of a computer, and with the full approval of the state. To be clear, this isn't just a phenomenon in Poland, but in the entire digital world.Box Opening or Skin Trading – it all starts with livestreams, where lengthy gaming sessions of idols from the younger generation are recorded live. At first, the CS (Counter-Strike) matches appear innocent. The player, part of a team, engages in matches, experiencing smaller or greater victories. Over time, they acquire new skills, and the platform itself starts offering various incentives to continue playing. They find a discarded rifle, knife, or chest containing hidden items. But to keep things exciting, an element of randomness is introduced. As Forrest Gump’s mother once said, you never know what you’re going to get in a box of chocolates. And here, young fans watching the players receive a dopamine boost. They cheer, hoping the chest will contain a rare and valuable item. Sounds innocent, right?Simultaneously, and often in opposition to official rules, underage players can trade or buy the items they find. The amounts of money involved are small. Everything looks colorful and harmless. But this activity isn’t just about spending pocket money. Children are being taught the habit of gambling. It becomes addictive and encourages them to look for shortcuts instead of achieving success through effort. Why play for 100 hours when you can buy winning attributes for just $9.90?A massive business is flourishing behind all this. Of course, it exploits legal loopholes and cunningly uses the influence of young generation idols. Influencers, players, and streamers lure naive kids with promises of doing nothing and getting rich. As you might expect, this business is shady and murky. But since you can top up your account with a credit card or through well-known payment operators (who are supposedly monitored by regulators), it doesn’t seem as bad. After all, you're not handing cash to a dealer on the street or sending it secretly through a locker system.Online safety isn't just about hacks and financial fraud on banking websites, but also practices like these. Recently, we’ve witnessed a surge in such activities. Just a few days ago, there was a big scandal about online lotteries used for money laundering and VAT fraud.Maybe it's time someone addressed this issue systemically? I have the impression that nothing is being done because there’s a lack of awareness among those setting the rules and regulators. But the scale of this problem is so vast that something needs to be done.

10/21/24 • 04:33

Jealousy, Envy... Oblivion People are just people. We are ruled by very animalistic instincts. Even though we try to control them, they are stronger than us.  The recently deceased Philip Zimbardo conducted the famous prison experiment. A film was made about it, and the experiment became the basis for many stories and anecdotes. Under certain conditions, people behave brutally, aggressively, and, worst of all, they derive pleasure from the suffering of others. Widespread, cheap communication, social networks, and the democratization of content creation and sharing make this aspect of human nature more visible than ever before. The sense of anonymity leads to the expression of negative opinions that we usually hide under the mask of being a mature member of society. We control ourselves.  When a neighbor buys a new car, a sense of jealousy arises among the others. If jealousy serves as a motivating factor and pushes other members of the community to put in the effort to keep up with the rising standard, everything seems fine. If the neighbors don't believe they can reach the new level set by the leader, envy comes into play. Unfortunately, in most cases, envy is negative or extremely negative.  Somehow, part of the community prioritizes explaining the success of others by attributing it to negative or illegal actions. In their system of values and assessment of possibilities, there is no room for success. If the most I can earn is the national average, then someone earning ten times more must either be using magic or stealing. Since magic doesn't exist, they must be stealing. A wide range of connections, cognitive abilities, creativity, or hard work is, for most people, a spark that transforms jealousy into envy. Interestingly, envy is a destructive trait. People who find confirmation from others that "something's off" get drawn deeper into this state. Like sinking in a mental swamp, they start finding more and more objects to envy. At some point, this "bitterness" becomes the driving force behind their actions.  However, when successful business leaders, artists, or athletes manage to escape the grip of "hate," society forgets about them. Some leave, others disappear from the media, and still others deliberately generate public news of failure. Nothing pleases the envious crowd more than confirmation of their suspicions. Then the crowd lets go. Envy fades and moves on to its next target.  You can't fight it. The only solution is to manipulate the crowd. The only cure is to show weakness or create the myth of a tyrant. Either show that you're not as perfect as the public sees you, or build a fortress of fear and inaccessibility. It’s a sad truth but one that's been around for thousands of years.  The photo was taken in Bogotá, Colombia. A street vendor selling rat, bat, and dead cat toys sells his creations and finds buyers.  I dedicate this to the leaders going through the stages of jealousy, envy, and oblivion. I wish you to enjoy jealousy as long as possible, pass through envy as quickly as you can, and savor oblivion for as long as you can. 

10/19/24 • 05:01

Mentor – A Dying BreedLast week was a spectacular string of successes for Elon Musk. Although after the presentation of humanoid robots, Tesla's stock dropped by nearly 10%, the landing of an autonomous rocket (segment) from the SpaceX stable hit the jackpot. There’s a lot of talk (as Musk himself writes in his biography) that he’s a lonely genius, doesn’t listen to others, and even fires those who are disobedient. But is that really the case?Leaders need mentors. As they embark on their journey into the unknown complexities of business, it helps to have someone who can offer good advice or a helping hand. Only a select few are lucky enough to find that. A mentor who understands both the changing world and has enough time and passion to share their experience is worth their weight in gold today.The concept of a mentor has its roots in ancient Greece, and its origin is tied to mythology. The term "mentor" comes from the name of a character in Homer’s *Odyssey*. In the epic, Mentor was a close friend of Odysseus. When Odysseus left for the Trojan War, he entrusted Mentor with the care of his son, Telemachus. Mentor played the role of an advisor and guardian to the young boy, helping him grow and develop. The figure of Mentor symbolizes a wise and experienced person who supports, inspires, and advises a younger or less experienced individual.The mentors I’ve had the chance to meet, as well as those who have helped my colleagues, possess many exceptional qualities. In my opinion, one of these deserves special recognition. One might think it’s knowledge, engagement, experience, or simply care. But the trait that stands out to me is the genuine and complete dedication to their mentee. Much like in Homer’s tale, it is the mentor who defines why they need to offer this favor. This seemingly simple element is crucial. The mentor either lets the young leader (not necessarily young in age) spread their wings or knows that they cannot offer adequate advice themselves. In that case, they ask the question (or should ask it): "What does my mentee need to succeed?" It turns out that often small suggestions, given by a trusted person, can be invaluable. We must remember that such a guide could simply be a business partner, a role model, or an authority figure.Elon Musk often mentions that his mentors were primarily Richard Feynman – the physicist known for the principle of "breaking down problems to their most basic truths," Peter Thiel – co-founder of PayPal, with whom Musk collaborated in creating the company, and Larry Page – one of the founders of Google. He also mentions Tony Stark (a fictional character). Musk often says that Tony Stark, the hero of the "Iron Man" films, was an inspiration to him in terms of innovation and technology.Richard Feynman was an inspiration to many. "The Pleasure of Finding Things Out" is a collection of essays, interviews, and lectures by Feynman that focus on his philosophy of science, approach to discovering the world, and the life of a scientist. The book was published posthumously and provides insight into the mind of one of the most fascinating physicists of the 20th century.Feynman presented several unique concepts that can serve as guidelines for the leaders of the new world."Curiosity and the Joy of Discovery" – He argues that the greatest pleasure in life is discovery itself, asking questions and finding answers. It’s not the end result, but the research process that brought him the most satisfaction."Critical Thinking and Skepticism" – He emphasizes the need for critical thinking, regardless of authority or established norms. He encourages questioning everything we hear and accepting only conclusions that withstand the test of skepticism. This approach is reflected in his "first principles" method."Discovery for the Sake of Pleasure" – Science and discovery should be motivated by the joy of the search for truth, not by material benefits or the desire for fame. Working in the lab, solving problems, or even small personal discoveries were for him a constant source of joy."Science and Ethics" – His reflections on the responsibility of scientists toward society are extremely relevant. Feynman talks about his experiences with the Manhattan Project and the ethical dilemmas related to the development of atomic weapons. He shows that the great power that science offers comes with the responsibility for its use.Although Musk didn’t follow all of Feynman’s advice, there’s something in Feynman’s philosophy for contemporary business leaders that we often forget in the grind of daily life.

10/15/24 • 09:39

Each of us collected something as a child. Postage stamps, athlete cards, postcards or model kits. A great passion that develops in a child's mind drives the desire for knowledge about the subject of our collections. Not only do we get to know the intricacies of sports teams, who had a match with whom and when, but also who scored how many goals or had the best result of the season. The uniqueness of collector's cards makes some more desirable than others. Their aesthetic value, tied to the history of sports icons, makes them sought-after and valuable goods. Even collecting postage stamps or widely available banknotes brings great joy. But the question is, what makes a collection valuable? The answer is very simple: its completeness and the quality of the exhibits. The value of the collection grows with its completeness. Two complete card collections from a given season differ in value due to the quality of individual exhibits. This regularity was noticed in the last century. Numerous businesses specializing in issuing collectible treasures and having partnership agreements with sports club leagues were established. Postal services around the world and mints, by issuing collectible coins or postage stamps for collectors, also noticed business opportunities in collectors. Their value always had a nominal and collector's value, often differing by several orders of magnitude. But here too, the quality and completeness of the collection are most important. Rare exhibits (often unique in the world, which is typical for works of art) appear at auctions worldwide. Their value is assessed by experts based on many factors which, however, boil down to a simple rule – something is worth as much as someone is willing to pay for it. For a collector, who lacks just this one item, it will probably be worth much more than for someone who is just starting their adventure. This truth is the basis of valuation. A similar phenomenon occurs in the digital world.   Companies and their clients are creating more and more data. It turns out that for some time now, more and more specialized institutions are emerging that follow the path of collectors. These companies (most of them coming from the telecommunications market) aggregate and sell data. They saw potential in the fact that having good-quality data and a complete collection constitutes value. Exactly as in the case of collecting postage stamps. The price for providing this data may be standardized (e.g., a credit report, or weather forecast) or depends on the specifics of the aggregate that must be prepared and the data set that must be used to prepare such a query. As for the idea of this type of marketplace (data marketplace), they are nothing new and also operate on the principle of "willingness to pay" or a minimum price. And we would probably end this story about the possibility of data monetization and constantly emerging data providers and marketplaces here. In the not-too-distant future, there will probably be many more of them because generative AI becomes a wonderful tool for converting data into information and knowledge. Companies, having their own operational data and collecting it, see an easy opportunity to earn on them simply by changing their form. It's like selling eggs and flour separately. By putting in a bit of work and knowing the recipe, you can turn this into a cake and sell it for a much higher price. And most importantly, in a repeatable way, as a new business model.   So what is another possibility? And here again, a certain business model known to us all comes to mind. We remember how in the '80s or '90s in front of stadiums where concerts or matches were held, there were ticket sellers, offering them for several times their nominal price. There are probably still such places. Nevertheless, this business has almost completely been replaced by websites where you can buy tickets for all events in a given city. Sophisticated revenue management models optimize the price depending on demand and availability, and high service commissions make it a great business. What makes it profitable? Namely, its nature – real-time mode. The platform owner must have information about demand, supply, events, and weather predictions, for example, to optimally manage the price (and sometimes availability or apparent unavailability). This platform model is a wonderful example of data monetization. But what phenomenon is key to success here? This mechanism is the dynamic asymmetry of information. The phenomenon of information asymmetry has been known in economics for a long time. It can have negative or positive connotations. However, in the case of digital business models, it is the basic "engine" for making money. It is easy to check whether a startup will be doomed to failure or has a chance of success by only checking whether and how many levers of dynamic asymmetry of information it possesses. Thanks to the mechanism of dynamic asymmetry of information, the platform owner makes decisions about connecting the buyer with the seller or launching specific actions. An example would be the order of display of products on a sales platform depending on how much the seller paid for the "position". Sound familiar? But the real magic is on the other side, the advertisement seller knows exactly how much to ask for such a position. So de facto knows dynamically how much that information is worth at any given moment. What's more, all of this happens automatically and is admittedly controlled by very basic, but still artificial intelligence.   Dynamic asymmetry of information based on artificial intelligence and operating very quickly (basically imperceptibly to human decision speed) poses a very large threat in the ethical, social, and economic scope. Improperly or unethically used, it manipulates the customer, supplier, and sometimes also the platform owner. But that's a topic for another article.

10/14/24 • 10:12

"Product of the Future: The Competitive Advantage in the World of Generative AI"When I published my book, "SPEED: No Limits in the Digital Era" (www.speednolimits.com) in 2019, many people inquired about a somewhat misunderstood concept - the "Product of the Future." I introduced this idea to illustrate how the products and services of the third and fourth industrial revolutions differ significantly. I provided an example at the time: In the third industrial revolution (and all preceding ones), an entrepreneur's competitive advantage was his experience. This isn't about the innovators creating groundbreaking technologies, but about 99% of businesses worldwide that leverage various products to offer their services or to create other products. Consider two bakeries on the same street in a city of one million residents. One displays the words "In Business Since 1890" on its signboard. Their competitive edge over the newly established bakery is experience. They have gathered customer feedback over the years and continuously improved their offerings. Even if the two bakeries use identical ovens, products, and recipes, the experience becomes the competitive advantage. Consequently, entrepreneurs often "acquire experienced employees." This approach has been the norm for centuries. In the fourth industrial revolution, however, the product contains both knowledge and experience (of hundreds of millions of people). We have seen the fusion of these two elements in various "smart products." For instance, a smartphone camera processes pictures according to the most suitable format and color for social media platforms to maximize likes or engagement. This is the "Product of the Future."The question then arises: Where is the competitive advantage between two photographers using the same tool - the Product of the Future? Is it price, network, or marketing? Today, these factors are more crucial than experience or knowledge - these can be purchased, bluntly speaking. Lately, there's been much buzz about Generative AI. In my view, it's a breakthrough, not necessarily in technology or discovery, but in daring to create the Product of the Future. Andrew Lowe and I recently attended a lecture at MIT where Danny Lange compared ChatGPT to the 1957 launch of Sputnik by the USSR. This seemingly small "wheel" with four "sticks" made the world realize that someone (in this case, the USSR) was gaining dominion over space. Did Sputnik have stunning functionalities and capabilities? No, but that wasn't the point. It was about demonstrating dominance and signaling that satellites are the technology of the future, which indeed they are. The situation with Generative AI is similar. The fusion of knowledge and experience in one product makes this technology revolutionary. Its general availability, ease of use, and operation speed make it extremely useful. So, what will be the competitive advantage in the era of Generative AI? What will distinguish two text writers using GPT chat? Of course, a third writer who does not use it won't stand a chance from the start. The answer, though seemingly simple and obvious, might surprise and shock many, especially those clinging to their business models. The answer lies in usage, the business model, and the operating model. The SPEED to adapt and the conscious courage to do so will be pivotal. Those who remain stuck in "yesterday's world" will quickly lose margins, customers, and existing competitive advantages to new, agile businesses based on APIs and applications. The competitive advantage will arise from the ability to "unlearn" habits and understand new customer needs and behaviors. It will be directly proportional to the implementation of scalable changes in business models and the utilization of the human potential for tasks that Generative AI cannot yet perform.

10/9/24 • 03:36

I recently revisited Andrew S. Grove's book "Only the Paranoid Survive". He was chairman and CEO of Intel Corporation. This book was published in 1996 and quickly gained recognition as one of the most important sources of information on business strategies in the changing world of technology. The main theme of the book is the concept of "inflection points" in business - moments when the fundamental principles of the industry are changing. Grove argues that companies must be "paranoid" to survive in the face of such inflection points. In other words, companies must be constantly vigilant, always anticipate possible changes in their environment, and be ready to adapt quickly to them. In the fourth industrial revolution, new technological trends usually appear after some major crisis. One could trace back several decades and see how after the "blue chip" crisis at the beginning of the 21st century e-commerce developed rapidly, and how after the 2008 crisis social networks gained importance. They completely changed the market. But did companies immediately behave like Intel - positive paranoid? The answer is simple - NO. The market needed about 5 years to realize what was happening and adapt to the new realities. Internal sales departments gradually moved to new business models related to e-commerce, after recognizing the potential of social network marketing, the new term Digital Marketing became the basis for even very traditional businesses. What's happening now? Since 2015, trends related to Big Data, IoT, AI, Cloud, and Mobility have been appearing in the market of new technologies. The "paranoids" were massively testing new technologies and adopting new business models. COVID-19 accelerated the adoption of cloud and mobile solutions. You could show exponential sales growth through e-commerce channels (particularly thanks to mobile payments and quick delivery of goods). Unknown customer offers appeared, gaining market share, such as choosing 5 products, leaving what fits, and returning the rest at our expense. Drop shipping dominated "small" trade, and in many cases, social media portals became the only access channel to the customer even for large players. What's ahead of us? I think most companies and their leaders realize how pivotal a moment is coming or has already come. I'm talking about Generative AI, of course. And to be clear, these are "paranoids" in the positive sense of the metaphor. They try to identify work and processes performed by dozens of employees and intelligently automate them. And while in the era of software Robotic Process Automation, we talked mainly about back office work, now we are talking about creative work, customer contact, marketing content, and substantive development. Of course, in this case, the work done by people will be replaced by Generative AI, and the control over its operation will be the same people with other skills. But the game is about something else. The stakes are new business models and changing customer habits. The offer of completely new services and smarter products. Here is the chance for the "Holy Grail". What is it? In my opinion, it is the real era of Data Monetization using AI (generative AI). It is creating or modifying business models based on fully automated and intelligent decision-making processes. Everyone probably knows the saying that a frog boils in water because it doesn't recognize the temperature increase. It needs an impulse from the outside to save itself. Someone must "give it a hand". The process described in the book "The Innovator's Dilemma" by Harvard Business School professor and legend Clayton M Christensen, is when innovation leaders make changes to transform from a caterpillar into a beautiful butterfly. Over the past five years, the hot topic of Digital Transformation has lost its impact. But now it's back. Maybe we will call it something different. But right now, with the trend of generative AI, "frogs will jump out of the boiling pot". Right now, companies will believe that it's worth making this transformation and really change. Right now their customers expect it because they themselves are already using simple Generative AI tools and understand their benefits. They may not fully understand their drawbacks and consequences, but in the world, it is already the case that "bad money drives out good", or to paraphrase, worse quality AI results replace better human work. But that's a compromise humanity is ready for. Generative AI will be this helping hand for entrepreneurs. Thanks to it, they will improve their services and products, they will copy others, and optimize the use of their own knowledge resting in the data they collect.

10/8/24 • 06:42

The taboo of burnoutby Marzanna Maciejewska Is burnout among high achievers still a taboo subject?   Let’s start by recalling what burnout actually is. The classic model developed by Christina Maslach is based on three components:  Emotional exhaustion – Refers to feelings of physical and emotional fatigue caused by work overload. A person feels drained of energy, leading to diminished motivation and engagement.Cynicism – Characterized by emotional detachment from work, as well as indifference or even negative attitudes toward colleagues, clients, or coworkers. Reduced sense of personal accomplishment – Involves feelings of dissatisfaction with work, a low sense of professional efficacy, and the belief that desired results aren't achieved despite hard work. Why don’t we openly talk about burnout, especially among high achievers? "Just do it" / "You can have it all" / "You can always do more" / "Sky is the limit" Fast-paced, high-performance living is the cultural ideal of our time. Even the most critical among us succumb to the subtle social pressure to achieve, experience, and "make the most" of every moment, without "wasting" time. Our social DNA almost compels us to align with whatever is currently deemed important and desirable.  You might think that a hectic professional life grants a pass to spend leisure time in a more relaxed way. However, even leisure is governed by productivity and purpose. Just a quick scroll through any social media feed reveals this.   Many people I've worked with had no free evenings during the week, and boredom is a word erased from many vocabularies. Admitting to burnout feels like confessing that we don’t align with what modern culture and society deem the ideal life and adaptation to it.  If everything is so great, why does it feel so wrong?   Many individuals experiencing symptoms of burnout feel a disconnect between their mental, emotional, and physical state. If we’ve pursued or achieved a career that "millions would die for" (to paraphrase Miranda from *The Devil Wears Prada*), then struggling with burnout can bring feelings of confusion, disbelief, shame, and other difficult emotions.   Everything seems as it should be, so what went wrong? Often, I encounter an attitude like: "Something temporarily broke, but it’ll soon return to normal." The body, which responds with pain, insomnia, chronic fatigue, panic attacks, or loss of appetite, is treated as a machine to be repaired. Misunderstanding what's happening can lead to hiding symptoms and downplaying them.Fear of stigmatization and consequences   Fortunately, burnout and mental health are being discussed more openly nowadays. However, many environments still exist where taking care of one’s needs is labeled (implicitly or explicitly) as "giving up" or "surrendering," while workaholism is rewarded, either overtly or subtly.   A common fear among those experiencing burnout is being sidelined from important projects, losing opportunities for promotion, or even being distanced from the team. For those in leadership positions, there is the added responsibility of maintaining team morale, motivation, and energy.Some myths about burnout   Perhaps the most widespread myth is that burnout is solely linked to stress and overwork. In reality, burnout can affect people who don’t feel like they are working excessively. On the other hand, some who work intensely don’t show signs of burnout.   Another well-established myth is that burnout is a one-time event. In fact, it can recur cyclically, especially if long-term changes are not implemented or if the deeper causes of burnout aren’t addressed. This myth is often paired with the belief that rest, a longer vacation, and reorganizing life will solve everything.Key human needs (as outlined by Gabor Maté) show what we need for optimal functioning:  A sense of belonging and connectionAutonomy and the ability to make decisions that impact one’s lifeCompetence and masteryGenuine self-esteem, independent of achievements, possessions, or others’ opinionsTrust: Awareness of having personal and social resources necessary for continued lifePurpose and meaning: Seeing oneself as part of something greater than personal well-being and contributing to its fulfillment  The risk of burnout increases when there is less meaning, competence, autonomy, or true sense of belonging in our lives.How can we make burnout a more open topic?  I see three pathways:  Every "high-functioning" person who has experienced burnout and decides to make their story public, sharing their experiences and coping strategies, paves the way for others. This encourages more open conversations about the full spectrum of human experience.Organizations need to focus on creating psychologically safe environments, so people can talk about burnout more openly without fear of punishment.Continuous education and raising awareness about the risk of burnout and methods of overcoming it are crucial.

10/5/24 • 09:59

Once is luck, twice is skill.  “Our costs are too high, and margins are too small,” wrote Intel Corporation CEO Pat Gelsinger in a letter to employees. The stock of this iconic company has dropped by over 50% since the beginning of the year. With great surprise, the market and analysts are watching this situation and asking: what happened?  In 1996, Andrew Grove, former Intel CEO, published one of the most important business books, "Only the Paranoid Survive". I think it needs no recommendation. In the book, Grove describes moments when an organization or industry faces major changes—so-called "inflection points." These moments can be triggered by new technologies, market shifts, or competition. Companies must adapt quickly to survive. And for over three decades, Intel was a model of implementing this strategy. It can be said with confidence that adaptation and innovation were redefined in this book. Companies must be flexible and ready to innovate. Grove tells the story of how Intel transformed from a semiconductor memory manufacturer into a company focused on processors when competitors began to dominate their original segment. They were able to recognize the moment when “to be” meant “to change.” But this time, something went wrong.   Grove says that leaders and the entire company must have the ability to detect change. In his book, Grove emphasizes that organizations need to be able to spot changes on the horizon before they become obvious. This is a key skill for surviving in a changing market, and leaders must make difficult, often risky decisions to steer the company through transitions.  Looking at the entire technology market, and even beyond, a recurring pattern can be observed. COVID-19, which brought incredible revenue growth, lulled leaders into complacency. Sectors are waking up from this lethargy, announcing that it's time to apply proven methods again. Reorganizations aimed at cutting costs are now commonplace. Companies that implemented cloud technologies are starting optimization processes. Remote work is being reduced, and large investments are slowing down. We are refocusing on the customer and trying to understand their real needs.Companies are moving away from automated customer service, and bank branches are being refurbished to welcome customers again.   It is said that if someone succeeds once, it means they were lucky. When success repeats multiple times, it means they have skill. Many companies today need a critical look at their operational and business model. Many need the spirit of "paranoia" to stay relevant in the market. This is the best time for revolutionary changes and real shake-ups in industries. It has been exactly a decade since social media platforms took over revenue streams from telecoms. Fintechs took the place of slow-moving banks. Now, banks, with their vast investment resources, will revolutionize the utilities, real estate or FMCG sectors. Get ready for change because it's going to happen right before our eyes.

10/3/24 • 09:41

For „One Thousand and One Nights”, Scheherazade told her husband, Sultan Shahriar, a story every night to avoid being executed. At first, the sultan didn't want to listen to the stories, but he liked them so much that he came to his wife every night to hear a tale. Wise Scheherazade would tell it until dawn, but she would finish the story at the most crucial moment to encourage her husband to visit her chamber the next day. This text may seem to be about how the market constantly keeps our curiosity alive, kindles hope, allows us to dream of great adventures, and possible achievements, and causes businesses to identify with the hero who, despite failures, achieves success despite adversity. And it could be, because every success story essentially has the same script. What's more, as I read articles about the history of brands or the achievements of our times, the pattern is the same. But this text will not be about that. It will be about the tools that the heroes of these stories possess. Or, more precisely, about one magical tool - knowledge. If we delve into the volumes of the „One Thousand and One Nights” tales, its characters, unaware of anything, discover a magical spell - "abracadabra", "open sesame", or accidentally rub a lamp from which a Genie emerges to fulfill the lamp owner's wishes. Then miracles happen - thanks to the knowledge and great power, the lamp's owner becomes rich, the one who knew the secret password to the treasury is wealthy and happy, and of course, in the end, marries the princess. In today's stories about innovative companies that achieve success, two essential threads are visible. How reminiscent these are of Scheherazade's wonderful stories.The first is the discovery of a secret, magical knowledge, hidden in data. We have plenty of it, and it is rapidly increasing. For over 10 years, people have been talking about Big Data and its potential for increasing productivity or generating new revenue. And it's true. Only a few companies can convert data into information, and then into knowledge that gives a competitive advantage or simply generates income. These magical transformations using artificial intelligence (both advanced analytics and machine learning) are becoming the basis of the growing trend called data monetization. I spoke about this potential a few years ago and described it in my book "SPEED no limits in the digital era."The second thread is introducing a new business model in place of the old one or fundamentally modifying it. Examples of companies transforming from failing or at least stagnating businesses into sector sharks are multiplying. They have crushed the traditional way of doing business and introduced disruptive changes to business models - they no longer sell tapes, they sell access to platforms. Instead of focusing on the product, they focus on the customer and their needs.And here is where the knowledge from the tales of the 10th century comes to our aid. Indeed, we speak of success when we simultaneously implement technology (in our case, data monetization) and change the business model. Aladdin finds the lamp alone does nothing for him. Only when he rubs it and summons the genie who fulfills his wishes does it change his situation and bring him wealth and happiness. I meet many clients who ask for the implementation of modern technologies. They ask how to monetize data. However, few of them, if any, see the full picture and, most importantly, are capable of changing the model of operation or revolutionizing it. One might think it obvious that when talking about transformation, we mean the introduction of technological changes and business changes. But that's not the case. Many transformations fail because there's a lack of changes in the organization's culture (or these changes were not considered when creating the strategy), the difficulty of changing the values upon which the organization is based was underestimated - and I'm not talking about ethical values here, but business ones. After all, who would want to change a model where one sold their product for a million dollars once, and now we encourage to earn one dollar from two million transactions? We must remember that just like in the „One Thousand and One Nights” tales, the "enemy" changes before a transforming organization. Over all these years, we got to know him well and knew how to control and fight him. And now a super character, cunning and unknown, appears. It takes on various forms, is cunning and has powerful abilities. This is like competition in these dynamic times. The customer is not loyal, the regulator can be surprised, and in the end, a crisis and inflation appear. Scheherazade didn't finish her stories, causing her husband to be curious about what would happen the next night. Did you know that one of the strongest mechanisms of successful data monetization and new business models in the digital world is dynamic asymmetry of information? But more on that in the next story.Good night.

10/2/24 • 06:39

I recently had an interesting conversation with a friend who is looking for a job. He pointed out to me that, in many cases, companies are posting job openings for positions that don't actually exist. This is a very intriguing trend. Beyond the obvious and highly unethical aspect of such practices, another interesting phenomenon emerges. According to The Fortune, 8 out of 10 recruitment agencies post fake job offers. The primary reason is to test the effectiveness of new AI tools for verifying and automatically qualifying candidates. As we know, neural networks need to be trained and tested. The systems provided by integrators, trained on uniform datasets, undergo further training. But where do you get the data from? The easiest way is to build up the hopes of hundreds of thousands of people and ask them to send in their CVs. In addition to testing the effectiveness of filtering, data is also collected on candidate profiles, their history, and the attributes that the models interpret as the most appropriate.

9/29/24 • 06:11

Who is wiser: a professor who has won the Nobel Prize in Physics or a shepherd from a village in Ethiopia? The first reaction to such a question might be a smile, disbelief, or even doubt about the seriousness of the one asking. Thank you. The matter is a bit more complicated than it seems. The answer comes from the wisdom model proposed by Paul Baltes and Ursula Staudinger (Baltes & Smith), known as the Berlin Wisdom Model. In the Max Planck Institute in Berlin during the 1980s and 1990s, when many thought there was nothing more to discover, the capacity for reflection, empathy, and problem-solving were recognized as core attributes of wisdom. Interestingly, after extensive research, Baltes and Smith concluded that wisdom is a rare phenomenon in society. Fascinating, isn't it? Does this mean that most of us are foolish? They provided an answer to this question as well, and it is: most people are not wise.  

9/28/24 • 07:40

The COVID-19 pandemic overshadowed a market trend known as the "Big Resignation." Forced remote work allowed a new generation to find a balance between personal and professional life, focusing on their priorities and hobbies. Many corporate leaders mistakenly believed that young people had stopped leaving their jobs because they understood the rules governing business. Nothing could be further from the truth. After four years of prosperity, many leaders began to see themselves as business geniuses, as company results soared, sometimes even reaching triple-digit growth. However, financial analyses show that productivity is plummeting, and the return of operating costs reveals real problems.https://apconsulting.tech/wellbeing/rzeka-to-zycie

9/27/24 • 09:57

We learn about the invaluable role of bridges when a catastrophe strikes. A flood that washes away a bridge turns what seemed certain into a considerable logistical problem. Without bridges, cities can be cut off from the world. Ultimately, this is what the builders of moats separating castles from the plains aimed for. Bridges are also the objects of longing for lovers and the final structure for those contemplating suicide. Bridges, after all, are metaphorical connections between groups of people who move from one side to the other, finding themselves in their intended place. Transformation.https://apconsulting.tech/wellbeing/most

9/27/24 • 10:37