Once the murder capital of the world, El Salvador finds itself grappling with both gang violence and geopolitical shifts. Between 2013 and 2016, murder rates soared due to gang wars and systemic extortion. President Nayib Bukele, emerging from this tumult, removes the safety catches from the government and actually tackles the issue. However, all of this is coming at a long-term cost. How does Bukele's regional vision mesh with the complexities of Central American geopolitics, and does this new path set Bukele on a collision course with the US? Join us as we dissect El Salvador's evolving position on the world stage. On the panel this week are: - Robert Guest (The Economist) - Nik McNally (The Red Line) - Margaret Myers (Inter-American Dialogue) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:04 PART 2 - 24:29 PART 3 - 42:59 Outro - 54:44 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/

The potential conflict between India and Pakistan stands at a precipice of alarming complexity, as the two nuclear-armed neighbours navigate a tangled web of historical tensions, territorial disputes, and geopolitical ambitions, and with India's rapidly evolving military capabilities and strategic partnerships, the landscape of South Asian defence dynamics is shifting. The theoretical pitfalls of a confrontation between these nations would have far-reaching implications, not just for the subcontinent, but for the global order. From cyber warfare to conventional battles, what would a war between India and Pakistan entail? We ask our panel of experts to unpack the scenarios, strategies, and stakes posed by this conflict: On the panel this week: - Chris Clary (Uni of Albany) - Arzan Tarapore (CISC) - Christine Fair (Georgetown) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 03:01 PART 2 - 30:40 PART 3 - 53:51 Outro - 1:13:51 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/

The economic feasibility of Nuclear Power is under an unprecedented microscope, with evolving energy solutions and changing market dynamics, the mathematical foundation that once supported the nuclear industry's robustness is now slipping. While traditional energy giants like the US, France, and Russia grapple with the shifting sands of economic viability, emergent green energy leaders are questioning the place of nuclear power in tomorrow's energy mosaic. Is nuclear energy a mere bridging solution in our transition to a carbon-neutral future, or is it an unsustainable relic of the past? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Paul Dorfman (SPRU) - David Schlissel (IEEFA) - James Acton (CEIP) Intro: 00:00 PART 1: 05:32 PART 2: 22:30 PART 3: 33:56 Outro: 52:50 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepod For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/

UUVs or Unmanned Underwater Vehicles, are set to make the same kind of impact that UAVs previously made on the modern battlefield. With their vast operational capacities and affordable price tags, we are not only seeing major players like the US, Russia, and China engaged in a dire dash for future ocean supremacy, but also several smaller players who previously were locked out of the subsurface battlespace due to the high costs of conventional submarines. Will these new weapons serve merely as long-range recon vehicles for the major powers, or will UUVs be at the forefront of seabed warfare and underwater infrastructure sabotage? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: H. I. Sutton (Covert Shores) Samuel Bendett (CNA) Bruce Jones (Brookings Inst.) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:06 PART 2 - 31:13 PART 3 - 47:51 Outro - 64:42 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Support the show at: https://www.patreon.com/theredlinepodcast For more info, please visit: https://www.theredlinepodcast.com/

The Red Line has reached our 100th episode, and it has been an amazing journey putting all of these episodes together. But how accurate have our predictions been? We have been engaged in analysis and reporting for nearly 5 years now. So, we sat down and meticulously went through 2,000 pages of transcripts, episode by episode, to assess how many of our predictions on the show have come true and how many were incorrect. This week's episode features no guests, but rather includes clips from across all 100 episodes of the program. For more information, please visit our website.

Equatorial Guinea is one of the most puzzling countries in the world, with everything from coups involving Margaret Thatcher's son, to firing squads in Santa outfits operating in the country. However, far more worrying than that is the economic cliff the country seems to be barreling toward, with the industry, worth 90% of their income, announcing their departure from the country in 2026. Will Equatorial Guinea be able to steer the country away from the cliff? Will the Instagram star VP successfully transition into his father's role? And why is this country the strangest one we have ever covered? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Perri Grace (Geopolitical Analyst) - Max Lawson (Oxfam) - Florent Geel (Fmr FIDH Dir. Africa) - Emilia Columbo (CSIS) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:07 PART 2 - 15:29 PART 3 - 25:15 PART 4 - 33:46 Outro - 55:30 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information, please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

Estonia has one of the most impressive economic transformations anywhere on the planet, gaining independence from the USSR and completely overhauling its entire institutional base. While most of the post-Soviet states experienced slow growth and economic stagnation, Estonia instead grew rapidly and became the 'Startup Capital of Europe'. However, while Estonia celebrated its economic successes, cultural issues began bubbling just under the surface, setting the stage for a series of tough decisions to be made by Tallinn today. Will Estonia be able to maintain this level of growth? Will the language laws backfire? And will Sweden and Finland's entry into NATO completely change the defence dynamic within the Baltic states? We ask our panel of experts. - Elisabeth Braw (AEI) - Marko Mihkelson (Chair of Estonian FA Comm) - Steven Pifer (Stanford) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:21 PART 2 - 19:32 PART 3 - 36:06 Outro - 1:00:09 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information, please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

The ensuing dramatic demise of Françafrique and the consequential transformation of France's strategic goals in Africa have reshaped much of the geopolitics of the region. France no longer has the overt influence it once did but is instead moving to build influence with old partners through the EU and new partners through large investments into the Commonwealth nations. To France's detriment, though, other players like Russia, China, the UK, and the US have begun to move themselves into these power vacuums left by the French exit, and France may soon lose its primary position within West Africa. Who will end up holding influence over the region's natural resources? Will this impact the private sector as well? And where does the future lie for France's strategic interests? We ask our panel of experts: - Catherine Gegout (Uni of Nottingham) - Colby Connelly (Energy Intel) - Alex Vines (Chatham House) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 05:49 PART 2 - 25:39 PART 3 - 44:02 Outro - 1:02:28   Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information, please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

Central Asia stands at a pivotal crossroads, with the next few months likely to set the course for the region going forward. What lies at stake in Kazakhstan's delicate balancing act? Will political stability give way to democratic progress or plunge into uncertainty? Does Kyrgyzstan's strongman rule signal a step backwards for democracy or a formidable power to reckon with? As Uzbekistan extends its ruler's reign until nearly 2040, can we ignore the unsettling erosion of democratic principles? And in Tajikistan, where power seamlessly transfers to the ruler's children, what implications loom for democratic processes? Moreover, with Turkmenistan's freedom index ranking lower than North Korea, are we confronting an unprecedented democratic crisis? What is the future of democracy in Central Asia? We are our panel of experts: - Alexander Cooley (Barnard College) - Erica Marat (NDU) - Temur Umarov (CEIP) - Steve Swerdlow (USC) - Bruce Pannier (Central Asia Journalist) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 04:02 - (Kazakhstan) PART 2 - 27:33 - (Kyrgyzstan) PART 3 - 39:03 - (Uzbekistan) PART 4 - 55:49 - (Tajikistan) PART 5 - 1:10:02 - (Turkmenistan) Outro - 1:28:26   Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information, please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

There has been an online explosion of discourse surrounding several currency agreements signed by nations like Russia, China and India, with some even predicting the emergence of a gold-backed BRICS currency to rival the US dollar but the end of the year. Is this actually possible though, and how likely are these five countries who have wildly different levels of interest, savings and inflation, to work together in the long term, or is this just Russia and China making political noise whilst still clinging to the stability of the US Dollar? Are we experiencing the beginning of "The Death of the US Dollar?", or a masterclass on why it has maintained its primary position for so many decades now? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Vicky Pryce (CEB) - Maximilian Hess (FPRI) - Anders Åslund (Swedish Economist) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 03:59 PART 2 - 29:26 PART 3 - 53:53 Outro - 1:07:36 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information, please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

In this episode, we take a deep dive into the looming economic crisis in Egypt. With inflation on the rise, foreign investment declining, and a mounting debt burden, the country's economy is facing significant challenges. We discuss the roots of the crisis, its impact on Egypt's people, and the potential for social unrest. We'll also look at the role of the government and the military in responding to this crisis and ask what the future holds for Egypt's economy. Is this the first domino of the next Arab Spring? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Mirette F. Mabrouk (MEI) - Rich Outzen (Atlantic Council) - David Butter (Chatham House) - Ben Fishman (Washington Inst) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:56 PART 2 - 20:26 PART 3 - 37:39 PART 4 - 52:28 Conc - 68:29 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

In this episode, we explore the intensifying arms race between the US, Russia, and China in orbital satellite surveillance technology. Delving into the advanced capabilities of these countries' satellite systems and how they are changing the landscape of modern warfare. From enhanced intelligence gathering to the potential for preemptive strikes, we discuss the implications of this technological race on the future battlefield. Will this theater become more aggressive, will more and more players enter the race, and will we see the growing collaboration between Russia and China extend to space? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Tim Marshall (Author, Journalist) - Keith Masback (USGIF) - George Nacouzi (RAND) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 02:33 PART 2 - 23:01 PART 3 - 49:00 Conc - 68:03 Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

In this episode, we delve into the complex and lucrative world of the Mexican cartel drug trade and explore the economic factors that drive it. From the production and transportation of drugs to the money laundering schemes used to hide profits, we examine the various stages of the drug trade and the key players involved. We also discuss the impact of the drug trade on the Mexican economy and society, as well as the efforts being made to combat this illicit industry. Is there a way to blunt the rise of drugs like Fentanyl, or are we continuing down a path that simply empowers the cartels? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Jorge Castañeda (Fmr Foreign Minister of Mexico) - Vanda Felbab-Brown (Brookings) - Scott Mistler-Ferguson (Crime Researcher) - Steven Dudley (InSight Crime) Intro - 00:00 PART 1 - 03:52 PART 2 - 37:47 PART 3 - 59:09 PART 4 - 79:41 Conc - 96:20  Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

Bulgaria currently stands at a crossroads, with one group pulling the country toward the West, and an alliance of corruption, crime, and capture tethering the country toward Russia. These already high tensions are now also widening further, with the Bulgarian population heading to the polls for the fifth time in 2 years, and increasingly fringe candidates skewing internal discourse. Will Bulgaria be able to finally divest itself away from Moscow, or will it continue to act as a backdoor for Russian influence into the EU and NATO? We ask our panel of experts.  On the panel this week: - Georgi Gotev (Euractive) - Daniela Žuvela (Fortescue) - Vessela Tcherneva (ECFR) Intro = 00:00 PART 1 = 04:34 PART 2 = 21:59 PART 3 = 35:58 Conc = 53:26 Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow the Show on @TheRedLinePod For more information, please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

China appears to be sleepwalking toward a conflict over Taiwan, and in response, East Asia has begun to prepare for a war that could start as early as 2026. Whilst some like Japan are buying up unnamed vehicles to adapt to their growing demographic crises, other nations like South Korea have become leading arms exporters across the globe. Is the war in Taiwan inevitable, is Japan's rearmament strategy likely to come to fruition in time, and how is the US readying itself for the conflict that will dictate the geopolitical trajectory of East Asia for the next three decades? We ask our panel of experts On the panel this week: - Tim Heath (RAND) - Daniel Darling (Forecast International) - Mark Cancian (CSIS) Intro = 00:00 PART 1 = 05:39 PART 2 = 33:03 PART 3 = 51:36 Conc = 1:09:41 Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow the Show on @TheRedLinePod For more information, please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

The war in Ukraine completely changed how Europe saw its own defence, and once against the continent is beginning to scramble to hastily rearm and modernise its defence industries. The question being asked by several analysts though, is whether Europe is rearming for the right war? Whilst the tanks the UK, France and Germany are fast-tracking are optimal for the battlefields of Eastern Ukraine, they are of little use for future conflicts in the jungles of Mali, the foothills of the Balkans or even the beaches of Taiwan. Is Europe once again preparing to fight the last war? On the panel this week:  - Neil Melvin (RUSI) - Alex Clarkson (Kings College) - Perun (Defense Analyst) - James Black (RAND) Intro = 00:00 PART 1 = 03:51 PART 2 - 29:59 PART 3 = 43:59 PART 4 = 1:05:06 Outro = 1:30:36 Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow the Show on @TheRedLinePod For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

With demand for oil skyrocketing, the US are now reconsidering the usefulness of Venezuela's massive natural oil reserves. To meet the demand in the market, some in Washington are now even going as far as to propose the beginning of the normalisation of relations between Washington and Venezuela, with oil company Chevron already beginning operations inside the country as a test case. If the process goes ahead, it may signal an end to the US policy of "maximum pressure" throughout the region and the beginning of a region-wide policy shift. But how far will either side be willing to take these talks, and how will Venezuela's current allies in China and Russia react to these developments? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week:  - Phil Gunson (Crisis Group) - Ben Norton (Geopolitical Economy) - Chris Sabatini (Chatham House) Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow the Show on @TheRedLinePod For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

There are major faultlines appearing within the Chinese economy, particularly within many of the state government's budgets. Large debts are now all coming due, and the leadership in Beijing will be faced with several tough decisions within the next few months. Will Xi choose the plunge the country into a self-imposed, but managed downtown, or will the bubble burst on its own, throwing the country into economic chaos? We sit down with our panel of experts to find out.  On the panel this week:  - Joanna Chiu (Toronto Star) - Logan Wright (Rhodium Group) - David Dollar (Brookings Institute) Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow the Show on @TheRedLinePod For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

Numerous analysts failed to correctly predict the outcome of a war between Russia and Ukraine, with many anticipating Russia would conquer Ukraine within a matter of weeks. Some analysts, though, the ones watching Syria closely, could see the fractures in the Russian army beforehand, and these analysts are now watching Syria closely again. With Russia's position inside the country shifting quickly, will the Kremlin continue to pilot the country's decade-long civil war, or are other players beginning to move into the growing power vacuum? Can the Russian operations here in Syria once again show us the future of Ukraine? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Joanne H Cummings (Baylor Uni) - Rich Outzen (Atlantic Council) - Wladimir Van Wilgenburg (Journalist) - Charles Lister (MEI) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

North Korea, a nation whose GDP is equivalent to that of the small island of Jamaica, has tested a record amount of missiles this year. With these increasing tests, there is a worry that they will build upon this momentum, and in the future, pose a credible threat to the United States itself. In response to this, several prominent figures have been calling for the US to preempt this event, and carry out an invasion of the DPRK, solving the issue once and for all. But how difficult would an invasion be, is the cost worth it, and will a conflict here pull the rest of the region in with it? We ask our panel of experts On the panel this week: - Bruce Bennett (RAND) - Chad O'Carroll (NKNews) - Michael Green (CSIS) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

This year Russia has watched their geopolitical position within the region sink from bad to worse, and now there is a brand new issue facing Moscow, with the Russian version of NATO, the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation), facing a crisis of confidence. After Azerbaijan called Russia's bluff in the Caucasus, the world now knows the core of the CSTO treaty is worthless. So what happens now, will the organisation disband, will an outside power like China take over the reins, or will it simply continue to evaporate slowly? We ask our panel of experts: On the panel this week: - Steven Pifer (Stanford) - Temur Umarov (Carnegie) - Raffaello Pantucci (RSIS) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

There is no greater challenge when it comes to Climate Change than that of the energy transition. For some countries, it will mean investing billions into the modernisation of their power grids, and for other countries, it will mean abandoning the source of revenue responsible for around 80% of thier national GDP. The prominent question in front of these countries now though is will these countries begin preparing for the transition now, or will they be blindsided when the market does it for them? On the panel this week: - Lou Munden (TMP) - Theresa Sabonis-Helf (Georgetown Uni) - Colby Connelly (EnergyIntel) - John Calabrese (Middle East Inst) - Henry Sanderson (Benchmark Mineral Intel) This episode is Part 5 of 5 of our miniseries, The Green Line, examining the near-term geopolitical implications of Climate Change. Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow TMP on @Mission2020s

Billions of dollars worth of aid have been sent over the recent decades in hopes of building up the developing world, but whether the aid is achieving its stated goals is still up for debate. So this week, we look at how aid is being spent in Africa, how it compares to private funding and foreign loans, and what would need to be changed to make the impact on the ground? On the panel this week: - Max Lawson (Oxfam) - Daron Acemoglu (MIT) - Alex Vines (Chatham House) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

The world is on the precipice of the new revolution in Green Technology, but where do the materials for this Green Tech come from? One of the primary materials required for everything from smartphones to electric vehicle batteries is Cobalt, and silvery-gold looking mineral found primarily in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The DRC holds the vast majority of the world's Cobalt, and the country has become a vital part of the global supply chain, but how safe is that? Are we betting the entire future of Green tech on a country already barreling toward war, floods, and civil conflicts? We ask our panel of experts. On the panel this week: - Jason Stearns (Congo Research Group) - Ben Radley (Uni of Bath) - Bossissi Nkuba (Uni of Antwerp & UCBukavu) - Emilia Columbo (CSIS Africa) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow TMP on @Mission2020s

Saudi Arabia is experiencing numerous simultaneous challenges at the moment, ranging from royal infighting, a rearming Yemen, a diverging population, and a growing threat from Iran. Tasked with guiding the Saudis through this storm is MBS, a leader whose track record leaves a bit to be desired. What is troubling most regional analysts though, is that the global reliance on Saudi oil means that if Saudi Arabia were to falter here, it might take down several Western Economies with it. On the panel this week: - Helen Lackner (ECRF) - Roby Barrett (MEI) - Jane Kinninmont (ELN) - Sanam Vakil (Chatham House) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

Water is the most precious resource known to man, but some countries are currently preparing to wield it as a weapon. Through the building of hydroelectric dams, the shrinking of water supplies, or plain geography, water is set to reshape the balance of power in many of the world's geopolitical flashpoints. So where are these flashpoints, who is set to gain the upper hand, and how will climate craft a new reality for these nations? To answer that, we sat down with a panel of geopolitical experts.  On the panel this week: - Ben Bowie (TMP) - Alex De Waal (World Peace Foundation) - Bruce Pannier (Freelance Journalist) - Michael Kugelman (Wilson Centre) - Gordon Flake (Perth USAsia Center) Made in partnership with The Mission Climate Project This episode is Part 3 of our 5 part series.  Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow TMP on @Mission2020s For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

The Biden administration has just dealt a massive blow to the trajectory of the Chinese military, placing a ban on high-end microchips and semiconductors entering China. This is a virtually unprecedented move, and will almost certainly anchor down any growth for China's next generation of warfighting technology, but was this the right time? This is the most prominent card the US could have possibly played. Should they have played it now and given Beijing a chance to recover before a possible war, or played it later when China was at its most vulnerable? We sat down with our panel of experts to ask what effects these sanctions will have both now, and in the long term. On the panel this week: - Tim Cross (The Economist) - Bob Guterma (The China Project) - Jordan Schneider (Rhodium Group) - Chris Miller (Tufts School) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

Beijing now plays a crucial part in the global supply chain, and with it, the global CO2 output. However, even though China only recently reached this level of industrialisation, climate change is hitting them at the same time as everywhere else. These changes in the environment are pushing China to fish in potentially war-starting waters, dam potentially drought-causing rivers, and force the state to attempt to achieve 60 years of energy development in the space of 5. Can they do it, or will China collapse under its own weight? On the panel this week: - Lou Munden (Mission Climate Project) - Kevin Rudd (Fmr Prime Minister of Australia) - Erin Sikorsky (Cnt for Climate and Security) - Erik Solheim (President of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative) This is Part 2 of our special 5-Part Series focusing on The Geopolitics of Climate Change This Production was Brought to you by The Red Line and Mission Climate Project Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow TMP on @Mission2020s For more info visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

Mozambique has been struggling with an insurgency in its North for a number of years now, but events now appear to be moving from bad to worse. The area known as Cabo Delgado has chewed up and spat out PMCs and soldiers ranging from Russia's Wagner Group to South Africa's special forces, so will the EU or Rwanda finally be able to finally secure the contagious revolution in the North, or will this instability continue to deter international investors from entering Mozambique?  On the panel this week: - Borges Nhamirre (ISS) - Irina Tsukerman (Washington Inst) - Emilia Columbo (CSIS) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more information please visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com

Whilst debates around Climate Change still rage on US TV, the US Military has been quietly preparing for the now inevitable. Planners are now acutely aware of just how quick Climate Change is coming down upon us, and how dramatically it will change the geopolitics of the planet. What wargames are the military running in preparation for this? Which theatres do they project to be the most impacted? and is the US ready for a worst-case scenario? We ask our panel of experts.  On the panel this week: - Sharon Burke (Ecospherics/Fmr White House) - John Conger (Center for Climate and Security/Fmr White House) - Larry Wilkerson (Fmr Chief of Staff to Colin Powell) This is Part 1 of our special 5-Part Series focusing on The Geopolitics of Climate Change This Production was Brought to you by The Red Line and Mission Climate Project Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus Follow TMP on @Mission2020s For more info visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com